Team Payroll vs. Team Performance in Baseball

The following is a research paper I wrote for my English class this year on team payroll's relationship to team performance in baseball. I received a 94 on the paper. Please give it a read and tell me what you think. Later, I'll type up a more in-depth blog about my preface. Thanks, and enjoy.

Preface

While I was researching my paper, I realized that I wanted to find a way to represent the success of a team related to their payroll in numerical form. So I started the quest to perfect a formula to figure out a team's "payroll performance score" or "PPS." My original formula for PPS was very basic: take the rank of the team's payroll and subtract it from the rank of their record. So let's use the 2003 World Series-winning Florida Marlins as an example. In 2003, the Marlins went 91-71, the seventh-best record in the Majors that year. The Marlins' payroll was $49,050,000, the twenty-fifth highest in the game. In my initial formula, seven would be subtracted from twenty-five, giving them a PPS of eighteen. I realized, however, that I would run into issues with my formula after I figured out each team's PPS for 2003. The Oakland Athletics had the highest score of nineteen, with the fourth-best record and twenty-third highest payroll. But the A's did nothing in the playoffs, getting ousted by Boston in the first round, while the Marlins won it all. How could I get the PPS formula to reflect accurately?

I came to my next idea: add points to the difference between record rank and payroll rank. The difference between payroll rank and record rank, my initial PPS formula, became the "raw payroll performance score" (RPPS). I then took the teams' RPPS and added points to it based on the following criteria: winning their respective division or wild-card, success in the playoffs, and wins. I added five points to a team's score for winning their division and three points for winning their wild-card. Five points were added for making it past the first round of the playoffs, seven points for two rounds, and nine points for winning the World Series. Finally, five points were added if a team won more than 110 games, four points if the team won 100-109 games, three points if the team won 90-99 games, two points if a team won 80-89 games, and one point if a team won 76-79 games. I subtracted a point if a team won 70-75 games, two points if a team won 60-69 games, three points if a team won 50-59 games, and four points if a team only won 40-49 games. This final total became known to me as "adjusted payroll performance score" or APPS.

So let's take another look at the 2003 Florida Marlins. After subtracting record rank from payroll rank, I had a score of eighteen for the Marlins. The Marlins won the National League wild-card that year, allowing three more points to be added, giving them a score of twenty-one. The Marlins won the World Series, so I added nine more points, giving them a score of thirty. Finally, Florida was 91-71, so three points were added, giving them a final APPS of thirty-three, tops in the Majors, ahead of Oakland who had a score of twenty-seven and Minnesota who had a score of eighteen.

My final dilemma with my formula was how it was to be viewed. If the scores were listed in order and the viewer viewed them from top to bottom, I realized that larger market teams would be shut out entirely of being viewed as "successful." The 2003 New York Yankees had an RPPS of zero. They had the best record and highest payroll, a season that could be viewed as successful. However, a score of zero would not be viewed as successful by a casual viewer. This led me to view the scores on a spectrum. I have not been able to perfect a graphic for this yet, but I have an idea in my mind. First, with RPPS, teams in the middle of the spectrum (scores of five to negative five) would be viewed as having successful seasons, as they would have finished in the general area they were supposed to. Teams in the positives to the right in the six to ten range would be viewed as having good seasons be considered slightly overachieving. Teams with an RPPS of above ten would be considered to have had a sensational season. Teams with an RPPS between negative six and negative ten would be considered underachievers, while teams with an RPPS of under negative ten had a horrendous season. The 2003 New York Mets had the worst season of the last five years, having the second-highest payroll, but finishing with the twenty-seventh best record to finish with an RPPS of negative twenty-five.

The ranking of the teams based on APPS can still be put on the spectrum, but because of the addition of points for success, the center of the spectrum must be at five. So an APPS of between zero and ten is considered successful, ten to fifteen is considered a good season, and above fifteen is a sensational season. Zero to negative five is considered underachieving, while anything under that is just horrible. So using this data, I was able to find the most successful teams over the past five years.

According to RPPS, the most successful team over the past five years has been the Cleveland Indians, with an average RPPS of 12.0, while the least successful team has been the New York Mets with an RPPS of -10.6. The most successful team according to APPS has been the Oakland Athletics with an average APPS of 16.0. The least successful team has been the Baltimore Orioles with a score -9.4.

I did not feel this data was concrete enough to be used in the following paper, as it is still being perfected, but I did use some form of RPPS to represent success. Hopefully this provided a new way to look at team payroll and team performance.

Team Payroll vs. Team Performance

In baseball, there is a direct link between team payroll and team performance. It is conventional baseball wisdom that a large market team, one that plays in a large city with high revenues, such as the New York Yankees, should perform better than a small market team, one that plays in a smaller city with low revenues such as the Kansas City Royals. Steve Marantz wrote in the article "If You Don't Pay, You Lose" in The Sporting News, "In baseball, as in no other professional sport, championships are purchased, lock, stock, and barrel." However, there are prominent exceptions to this alarming trend.

Baseball is a game rooted in money which is evident after a quick glance at the game itself. Out of the four major sports organizations, the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, the National Hockey League, and Major League Baseball, Major League Baseball is the only one that does not have a salary cap. Because of this, richer teams in larger markets can outbid poorer teams for top talent in free agency ("Sports"). Many feel that the poorer teams are automatically placed at a disadvantage when the season starts. "When spring training starts, half the teams have no chance. The players know it, the managers know it, and most importantly, the fans know it," Peter Magowan, owner of the San Francisco Giants said ("Baseball's"). When asked how he feels about the relationship between team payroll and team performance, The Baltimore Sun columnist Peter Schmuck stated:

I believe there is a direct relationship between high payroll and success in Major League Baseball, and the best evidence is the New York Yankees. They have spent the most money on salaries over the past decade or so and have appeared in the playoffs every year since 1995. That's not a coincidence. (Schmuck Interview)

Schmuck echoes the sentiment Magowan presents that at the beginning of the season, it is clear-cut who the favorites are just based on payroll.

Some baseball analysts and owners have argued that some of the smaller teams, such as the Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins, should be disbanded. However, the success of the Athletics and Twins in recent years has made it hard for this proposed action to be justified. One way that the gap between the large and small market teams has been closed slightly is through revenue sharing. The point of revenue sharing is to have the richer teams share a portion of their profits with the poorer teams. Many rich teams, such as the New York Yankees, feel that this Robin Hood-like policy is unfair to them because they are basically penalized for making money. Outspoken Yankees owner George Steinbrenner likened revenue sharing to communism by saying, "You can't say, 'Well let's share everything equal,' or else we would be over in Russia. And it didn't work over there" ("Baseball's"). As Steinbrenner's comments show, more significant revenue sharing will not come easily.

The past history offers a distinct look into the impact of the payroll differential in Major League Baseball. In 1996, the eight teams in the playoffs were all in the top half of the payroll rankings and the team with the higher payroll won each series, ending with the New York Yankees defeating the Atlanta Braves in the World Series (Schmuck, "Money"). Contrast 2002 to 1996. The four teams in 2002 that advanced to their respective League Championship Series ranked no higher than ninth in payroll. The playoffs ended with the Anaheim Angels, with a lower payroll, defeating the San Francisco Giants in a seven-game series. This victory for small revenue teams went so far as to somewhat dispel the notion that "only the teams with the highest payrolls such as the New York Yankees had a shot at winning the World Series" ("Angels"). From the year 2002 to 2007, a team with a payroll regarded as "high" won the World Series only twice.

Even though all the evidence makes it seem virtually impossible to compete year-in and year-out with a low payroll, there is a glaring exception to the rule: the Oakland Athletics. The success of this particular baseball franchise was so shocking; it led the commissioner of Major League Baseball, Bud Selig, to call it "an aberration" (Lewis 123). In his book Moneyball, author Michael Lewis followed Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane throughout an entire season to get an inside look into the art of running a small market franchise. The Athletics practice "moneyball," a system implemented by Beane which breaks from the baseball tradition of spend, spend, spend. Dealing with a low budget and payroll, this is essentially the only way Beane can keep the Athletics competitive. Agent Scott Boras, who has some of the highest paid clients in baseball, when talking about Oakland's success, remarked, "What happened to these franchises is a product of management's decisions. Teams like Oakland have used intellect to overcome imbalance" ("Baseball's"). The "imbalance" Boras speaks of is simply money, not a skill advantage, as Oakland's success has shown.

The Oakland Athletics are a perfect example of a small market team competing on the big stage. In looking for players, Beane follows the philosophy of baseball sabermetrician Bill James. James is the author of the Baseball Abstract, which was published throughout the late 1970's and into the 1980's, and created a whole new way of looking at the game of baseball. James is the inventor of statistics such as range factor, runs created, and on-base plus slugging (OPS). James was an advocate of on-base percentage (OBP), which Beane took to heart (Lewis 69). On pages 128 and 129, Lewis writes:

A player's ability to get on base – especially when he got on base in unspectacular ways – tended to be dramatically underpriced in relation to other abilities. Never mind fielding skills and foot speed. The ability to get on base – to avoid making outs – was under priced compared to the ability to hit with power. The one attribute most critical to the success of a baseball team was an attribute they could afford to buy. At that moment, what had been a far more than ordinary interest in a player's ability to get on base became, for the Oakland A's front office, an obsession.

Not being able to afford to pursue high-profile free agents on the free agent market, Beane had to resort to looking to unusual sources for value. After the 2001 season, first basemen Jason Giambi left the Athletics for the New York Yankees and a seven-year, $120 million contract. In displaying the payroll gap between the large and small markets, Lewis wrote, "And that some fraction of the $120 million the Yankees had paid Jason Giambi after the 2001 playoffs to lure him away from the Oakland A's was to prevent him from ever again playing for the Oakland A's" (Lewis 123). The Athletics faced the dilemma of how to replace Giambi at first base. Beane called on Scott Hatteberg, whom he converted from catcher to first base, as he saw immense value in Hatteberg's ability to get on base. The cheap investment in Hatteberg paid off, as Hatteberg finished thirteenth in Major League Baseball in on-base percentage, third in pitches seen per plate appearance, and fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio, a feat nearly unequaled by any other player (Lewis 170). Along with "treating rich teams as petty cash dispensers" by extracting cash from teams by selling them players, the Athletics also would use players in the last year of their contracts as "rentals," acquiring them for next to nothing near the trade deadline and only keeping them for the stretch drive (Lewis 197).

As the payrolls rise, the realization is made that teams are not paying for more people; the teams are still paying for the same twenty-five players, giving talent a higher price. In 1998, pitcher Kevin Brown signed a then-astronomical seven-year, $105-million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, making him the highest paid player in baseball history. However, this did not equate to instant success for the Dodgers. In the five seasons from 1999 to 2003 Brown played in Los Angeles, the Dodgers went 426-384 (a .526 winning percentage) and did not make the playoffs in any of those years ("Professional"). Brown's addition boosted their payroll and added hope for success, but the money spent on Brown did not translate into success for the Dodgers.

In the same offseason, former Dodgers catcher Mike Piazza signed a contract worth $91-million over seven years with the New York Mets ("Do"). Piazza played out all seven years of his contract with the Mets from 1999 to 2005. In Piazza's seven years in New York, the Mets had two playoff appearances and made the 2000 World Series, losing to the New York Yankees. The Mets finished the seven years with a record of 568-565, a .501 winning percentage (Forman). Evaluation of Piazza's tour of duty with the Mets is difficult, as the Mets had success early in Piazza's Mets career, but in the last few years of Piazza's contract, the Mets were horrible, including a 66-95 season in 2003.

Alex Rodriguez is one of the most popular examples of equating team performance to team payroll. In December 2000, Rodriguez signed a 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers. This record-breaking contract did not turn into winning ways for the Rangers, as Texas went 216-270 in Rodriguez's three years (2001-2003) in Texas. Before the 2004 season, Rodriguez was traded to the New York Yankees for second basemen Alfonso Soriano. In Rodriguez's four years in New York, the Yankees are 387-261 and have made the playoffs each year, but have yet to win a World Series (Forman). In 2003, before the Yankees added Rodriguez to their payroll, their payroll was $152,749,814 while they won 101 games. In 2004, with the addition of Rodriguez, the Yankees' payroll ballooned to $182,835,513, and they still won 101 games (Holtz). Despite the team's lack of success, Rodriguez has won two American League Most Valuable Player Awards while with the Yankees. He recently was re-signed by the Yankees to a record 10-year, $275 million contract, reportedly worth up to $300 million with incentives, after he opted out of his former contract ("Alex Rodriguez").

The past five years show many different trends in terms of team performance and team payroll. In 2003, the Florida Marlins won the World Series with the twenty-fifth (out of thirty) highest payroll, defeating the New York Yankees, who had the highest payroll and best record that year. Also in 2003, the Oakland Athletics outperformed their payroll the most out of any team in Major League Baseball, finishing 96-66, the fourth best record in the game, with the twenty-third highest payroll. The New York Mets turned in one of the worst performances in Major League Baseball history from a payroll standpoint, finishing 66-95, good for the twenty-seventh best record. This is not much of a shock until one realizes the astronomical amount of money the Mets were paying: $117,176,620, the second highest payroll in the game. To put this into starker terms, the Mets essentially paid $1,775,403.33 per win in 2003 (Holtz).

The 2004 baseball season followed closer to the plan conventional wisdom set for it, as the Boston Red Sox won the World Series with the second-highest payroll in baseball, defeating the St. Louis Cardinals, who had the twelfth-highest payroll, in a four-game sweep. The Chicago White Sox won the 2005 World Series with the thirteenth-highest payroll, defeating the Houston Astros, who had the twelfth-highest payroll. Also in 2005, the Cleveland Indians put in the best payroll-related performance, finishing with the sixth-best record in baseball, while putting together the twenty-sixth highest payroll (Fry).

In payroll-related performances, 2006 was a year to remember. First off, the Florida Marlins started the season with a payroll of $14,998,500, the lowest in baseball by over $20 million, and thirteen times less than the New York Yankees, who had the highest payroll. They outperformed all expectations, finishing 78-84, or basically paying $192,288.46 per win. The Oakland Athletics again put in a great performance, finishing with the fifth-best record while having the twenty-first highest payroll (Forman). Another small market team, the Minnesota Twins, finished with the third-best record in baseball while having the nineteenth-highest payroll. The World Series-winning St. Louis Cardinals had the eleventh-best payroll, but the thirteenth-best record, actually underperforming based on their payroll. They beat the Detroit Tigers, who had the fourth-best record of the year and the fourteenth-highest payroll (Fry).

With the second-highest payroll in 2007, the Boston Red Sox won the World Series for the second time in four years. They swept the surprising Colorado Rockies who finished the year with the sixth-best record on the twenty-fifth highest payroll. Also surprising the experts in 2007 were the Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres, who had the best, fifth-best, and eighth-best records in baseball while having the twenty-third, twenty-sixth, and twenty-fourth highest payrolls. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays were the perfect example of team performance relative to team payroll, having the lowest payroll and worst record in the majors (Fry).

The answer is obvious that team payroll influences team performance, but there is still hope for small market franchises as the Oakland Athletics have proven. The advent of the "moneyball" strategy has given the most hope to the small market teams, and with the recent success of small-market, low-payroll teams in general is a great sign for baseball. With teams outside of the top ten in payroll winning the World Series in three of the past five years, it appears that the landscape of Major League Baseball is changing. However, conventional wisdom still continues to rule a game unwilling to change its unwritten rules.

Works Cited

"Alex Rodriguez signs new Yankee deal." UPI NewsTrack. (Dec 13, 2007): NA. Student Resource Center - Gold. Thomson Gale. John Carrol School. 15 Dec. 2007.

"Angels, Giants Win Baseball Pennants; First All-Wild Card World Series Set; Other Developments." Facts On File World News Digest 24 Oct. 2002. Facts On File World News Digest @ FACTS.com. Facts On File News Services. 11 Nov. 2007 <http://www.2facts.com>.

"Baseball's Future." Issues & Controversies On File 23 June 2006. Issues & Controversies @
FACTS.com. Facts On File News Services. 11 Nov. 2007 <http://www.2facts.com>.

"DO HIGH PAYROLLS GUARANTEE PENNANTS?" USA Today Mar. 1999: 7. Student
Research Center Gold. InfoTrac. John Carroll School. 10 Nov. 2007. Keyword: Baseball Payrolls.

Forman, Sean L. Baseball-Reference.com - Major League Statistics and Information. http://www.baseball-reference.com/. 13 November 2007.

Fry, Ben. Salary Vs. Performance. 2007. Ben Fry. 9 Nov. 2007 <www.benfry.com>.

Holtz, Sean. Baseball Almanac. 2 Nov. 2007 <www.baseball-almanac.com>.

Lewis, Michael. Moneyball. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2003.

Marantz, Steve. "If You Don't Pay, You Lose." The Sporting News 10 Nov. 1997: 8. Student
Research Center Gold. InfoTrac. John Carroll School. 7 Nov. 2007.

Schmuck, Peter. E-Mail interview. 19 Nov. 2007.

Schmuck, Peter. "Money Doesn't Always Buy Happiness." The Sporting News 19 May 1997: 37. Student Resource Center Gold. InfoTrac. John Carroll School. 6 Nov. 2007.

"Sports Salary Caps." Issues & Controversies On File 26 Nov. 2004. Issues & Controversies @
FACTS.com. Facts On File News Services. 11 Nov. 2007 <http://www.2facts.com>.

Thanks for reading.

This will never end…

This might be a little premature, but I would have to say the Mitchell Report will be somewhat of a lost cause. I mean, it's great we're getting all this info on steroids and who allegedly did them, but the conspiracy theories are already coming out.

I walked into my first class of the day, religion, and simply said, "Pettite and Clemens" to my religion teacher, who is a diehard Yankees fan. He just shook his head before telling me that Mitchell allegedly has ties to the Red Sox organization and there were no Red Sox implicated in his report. He then said, "Coincidence?" You can't tell me that no member of the Red Sox used steroids.

The steroid scandal will never be over. As much as it pains me to say this, baseball is tainted, probably irreparably. This whole era is dirty. People's stats are inflated because they used steroids. People's stats are deflated because they played against people using steroids. It's a no-win cause for baseball.

We all know what was going on. Guys we liked were juicing. Guys were hated were juicing. Guys we thought were juicing were juicing. Guys we didn't think were juicing were juicing. Guys with big stats were juicing. Guys with no stats were juicing.

I haven't had a chance to read any of the report, and I probably won't read a lot of it, but baseball is shaken to its core. Everyone's reputation is tarnished. The guys whose names were named will start naming more names. This firestorm will take years to quell. It is going to be virtually impossible for anyone to get by without being questioned. Baseball has put itself under a very intense microscope, not even mentioning the dilemma the league is now in.

Do they suspend all named in the report? Do they deny them interest to the Hall of Fame? Do they remove people from the Hall of Fame?

This is a bit of a rant, but the Mitchell Report bogs baseball down even more. The scrutiny is unbearable. This is a crisis. Baseball is in a state of emergency. They need FEMA. I don't think they will be able to really recovery that fully from this. Everyone's feats will always be under scrutiny in this era and in the near future. It's almost like we are going to have to expect that someone will test positive for steroids.

Expect the worst. Hope for the best. That's all we can do now.

Anyway, I hope this made sense to all of you. It doesn't even make that much sense to me right now, but whatever.

What's your take? Do you have any conspiracy theories?

Yankees-Indians: ALDS Game 4

October 8, 2007
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
Cleveland leads series 2-1
Paul Byrd (0-0) vs. Chien-Ming Wang (0-1)

Starting Lineups/Batting Order
Cleveland Indians
Grady Sizemore (CF)
Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)
Travis Hafner (DH)
Victor Martinez (1B)
Jhonny Peralta (SS)
Kenny Lofton (LF)
Franklin Gutierrez (RF)
Casey Blake (3B)
Kelly Shoppach (C)
New York Yankees
Johnny Damon (LF)
Derek Jeter (SS)
Bobby Abreu (LF)
Alez Rodriguez (3B)
Jorge Posada (C)
Hideki Matsui (DH)
Robinson Cano (2B)
Melky Cabrera (CF)
Doug Mientkiewicz (1B)
a-Shelley Duncan (PH-1B)
b-Jason Giambi (PH-1B)

Pitchers
Cleveland Indians
Paul Byrd (W, 1-0): 5 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO, 1 HR, 3.60 ERA
Rafael Perez: 2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 1 HR, 1.50 ERA
Rafael Betancourt: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
Joe Borowski (S, 1): 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 SO, 1 HR, 4.50 ERA
New York Yankees
Chien-Ming Wang (L, 0-2): 1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 HR, 19.06 ERA
Mike Mussina: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 SO, 3.86 ERA
Ron Villone: 0.1 IP, 0.00 ERA
Kyle Farnsworth: 1 IP, 1 H, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA
Jose Veras: 0.1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
Mariano Rivera: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA

Cleveland Indians 6, New York Yankees 4
Cleveland wins series 3-1
WP: Paul Byrd (1-0)
LP: Chien-Ming Wang (0-2)
S: Joe Borowski (1)

Notable Stats
Cleveland Indians
Grady Sizemore: 2-3, 1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Travis Hafner: 1-3, 1 R, 2 BB
Victor Martinez: 2-5, 2 RBI
Jhonny Peralta: 3-4, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Kelly Shoppach: 2-3, 2 2B, 1 R
New York Yankees
Derek Jeter: 2-5, 1 RBI
Bobby Abreu: 2-5, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 SO
Alex Rodriguez: 2-5, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 SO
Robinson Cano: 2-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI

Summary
Some notes, and my opinion. I didn't watch it, so these are snippets of thoughts from the stats:
Yanks should not have started Wang, Mussina probably would have been a better option, and with the way the bullpen pitched last night, I would have start Mussina. A-Rod actually did something...Shoppach had an impressive postseason debut...Sizemore hit his first career postseason home run...Paul Byrd pitched well for the Tribe...that's about all.

Indians-Red Sox. Should be a good one.

Yankees-Indians: ALDS Game 3

October 7, 2004
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
Cleveland leads series 2-0
Jake Westbrook vs. Roger Clemens

Starting Lineups/Batting Order
Cleveland Indians
Grady Sizemore (CF)
Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)
Travis Hafner (DH)
Victor Martinez (C)
Ryan Garko (1B)
Jhonny Peralta (SS)
Kenny Lofton (LF)
Trot Nixon (RF)
Casey Blake (3B)
New York Yankees
Johnny Damon (LF)
Derek Jeter (SS)
Bobby Abreu (LF)
Alex Rodriguez (3B)
Jorge Posada (C)
Jason Giambi (1B)
Hideki Matsui (DH)
Robinson Cano (2B)
Melky Cabrera (CF)

Pitchers
Cleveland Indians
Jake Westbrook (L, 0-1): 5 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 SO, 1 HR, 10.80 ERA
Aaron Fultz: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
Jensen Lewis: 1 IP, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
Joe Borowski: 1 IP, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA
New York Yankees
Roger Clemens: 2.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 SO, 1 HR, 11.57 ERA
Phil Hughes (W, 1-0): 3.2 IP, 2 H, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA
Joba Chamberlain: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 4.91 ERA
Mariano Rivera: 1 IP, 2 SO, 0.00 ERA

New York Yankees 8, Cleveland Indians 4
Cleveland leads series 2-1
WP: Phil Hughes (1-0)
LP: Jake Westbrook (0-1)

Notable Stats
Cleveland Indians
Jhonny Peralta: 2-3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 2B
Trot Nixon: 2-4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 SO
New York Yankees
Johnny Damon: 3-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 4 RBI, 1 SO
Alex Rodriguez: 2-4, 1 R
Hideki Matsui: 2-2, 2 BB, 3 R
Robinson Cano: 2-4, 1 2B, 1 R, 1 RBI

Summary
Again, I didn't see this one. The Yanks dominated Westbrook...probably the Rocket's last start...A-Rod had two hits...good game from Matsui...not much else to say since the Indians just won Game 4...

Game 4
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
Paul Byrd (0-0) vs. Chien-Ming Wang (0-1)

Yankees-Indians: ALDS Game 2

October 5, 2007
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
Jacobs Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Indians lead series, 1-0

Starting Lineups/Batting Orders
New York Yankees
Johnny Damon (LF): 0-5, 1 SO (.111)
a-Bronson Sardinha (LF)
Derek Jeter (SS): 1-4, 2 SO (.125)
Bobby Abreu (RF): 1-4, 1 SB (.333)
Alex Rodriguez (3B): 0-4, 3 SO (.000)
Hideki Matsui (DH): 0-3, 1 BB (.000)
Jorge Posada (C): 0-3, 1 BB (.000)
Robinson Cano (2B): 0-4 (.143)
Melky Cabrera (CF): 1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI (.125)
Doug Mientkiewicz (1B): 0-3 (.000)
b-Shelley Duncan (PH-1B): 0-1 (.333)
Cleveland Indians
Grady Sizemore (CF): 2-4, 1 R, 1 3B, 2 BB, 1 SO (.375)
Asrubal Cabrera (2B): 0-4, 1 SO (.125)
Travis Hafner (DH): 2-6, 1 RBI, 2 SO (.300)
Victor Martinez (C): 0-3, 1 BB, 1 SO (.375)
Ryan Garko (1B): 0-3, 1 BB (.429)
Jhonny Peralta (SS): 1-4, 1 2B, 1 SB, 1 BB, 3 SO
Kenny Lofton (LF): 2-3, 1 R, 2 BB (.714)
Jason Michaels (RF): 1-1, 1 2B (1.000)
a-Franklin Gutierrez (RF): 1-3, 2 SO (.200)
Casey Blake (3B): 0-4 (.125)

Pitchers
New York Yankees
Andy Pettite: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO, 0.00 ERA
Joba Chamberlain: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO, 5.40 ERA
Mariano Rivera: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0.00 ERA
Luis Vizcaino (L, 0-1): 0.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 13.50 ERA
Cleveland Indians
Fausto Carmona: 9 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO, 1 HR, 1.00 ERA
Rafael Perez (W, 1-0): 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA

Cleveland Indians 2, New York Yankees 1 (11 innings)
WP: Rafael Perez (1-0)
LP: Luis Vizcaino (0-1)
Cleveland leads series, 2-0

Notable Stats
New York Yankees
Johnny Damon: 0-5, 1 SO
Alex Rodriguez: 0-4, 3 SO
Hideki Matsui: 0-3, 1 BB
Jorge Posada: 0-3, 1 BB
Robinson Cano: 0-4
Melky Cabrera: 1-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI
Cleveland Indians
Grady Sizemore: 2-4, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 SO
Kenny Lofton: 2-3, 1 R, 2 BB
Travis Hafner: 2-6, 1 RBI, 2 SO

Summary
Well, another game, another Yankees loss. Bug swarms aside, this is another good game I couldn't watch (I don't get TBS). Carmona was lights out in his first career postseason start, which is hopefully a sign of things to come for this young man. Nine innings, three hits, and one run. The mark on his near-perfect pitching line was a solo home run by Melky Cabrera in the third inning. Another unfortunance for Carmona is that Andy Pettite was lights out too, giving up no runs in six-and-one-third innings pitched. Pettite left in the seventh for Joba Chamberlain, and I guess you could say the rest is history. Overcome with bug swarms, Chamberlain allowed Grady Sizemore to score the tying run in the bottom of the eighth on a wild pitch to make it a 1-1 game.

The game remained scoreless until the bottom of the eleventh when, with Luis Vizcaino pitching, Kenny Lofton earned a lead-off walk. Franklin Gutierrez followed with a single to center that moved Lofton to second, before a Casey Blake sacrifice bunt moved both Gutierrez and Lofton up a base. Grady Sizemore was intentionally walked giving Asdrubal Cabrera the chance to be the hero. Cabrera popped out, passing the buck to Travis Hafner. Pronk stepped in and worked the count full. Hafner then immortalized himself in Indians history with a single to right field, scoring Kenny Lofton for the 2-1 victory.

The Indians pitching shut down the Yankees bats again, as Carmona and Perez combined on a two-hitter. Pettite pitched well, along with Chamberlain (until the attack of the bugs). Overall, the Indians have been dominating this series, holding the Yankees to four runs on eight hits in twenty innings. Can the Yankees complete a historic comeback?

Game 3
6:30 PN ET, Sunday, October 7, 2007
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
Jake Westbrook (0-0) vs. Roger Clemens (0-0)

Could this be the Rocket's last game?

Yankees-Indians: ALDS Game 1

October 4, 2007
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
Jacobs Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Series tied 0-0
Chien-Ming Wang (0-0) vs. C.C. Sabathia (0-0)

Batting Order/Starting Lineups
New York Yankees
Johnny Damon (LF)
Derek Jeter (SS)
Bobby Abreu (RF)
Alex Rodriguez (3B)
Jorge Posada (C)
Hideki Matsui (DH)
Robinson Cano (2B)
Melky Cabrera (CF)
Doug Mientkiewicz (1B)
Cleveland Indians
Grady Sizemore (CF)
Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)
Travis Hafner (DH)
Victor Martinez (C)
Ryan Garko (1B)
Jhonney Peralta (SS)
Kenny Lofton (LF)
Franklin Gutierrez (RF)
Casey Blake (3B)

Cleveland Indians 12, New York Yankees 3
Cleveland leads series, 1-0
WP: C.C. Sabathia (1-0)
LP: Chien-Ming Wang (0-1)

Notable Stats
New York Yankees
Johnny Damon: 1-4, HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 SO
Bobby Abreu: 1-2, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SO
Alex Rodriguez: 0-2, 2 BB
Jorge Posada: 0-4, 2 SO
Hideki Matsui: 0-4, 2 SO
Cleveland Indians
Asrubal Cabrera: 1-4, HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Travis Hafner: 1-4, HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Victor Martinez: 3-5, 1 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI
Ryan Garko: 3-4, 1 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI
Kenny Lofton: 3-4, 1 R, 4 RBI, 1 SB
Casey Blake: 1-4, 2 RBI

Pitchers
New York Yankees
Chien-Ming Wang (L, 0-1): 4.2 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 4 BB, 2 SO, 2 HR, 15.43 ERA
Ross Ohlendorf: 1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 HR, 27.00 ERA
Jose Veras: 0.1 IP, 0.00 ERA
Phil Hughes: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 SO, 1 HR, 4.50 ERA
Cleveland Indians
C.C. Sabathia (W, 1-0): 5 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 6 BB, 5 SO, 2 HR, 5.40 ERA
Rafael Perez: 2 IP, 4 SO, 0.00 ERA
Jensen Lewis: 1 IP, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA
Rafael Betancourt: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 SO, 0.00 ERA

Summary/Analysis
Well, I didn't watch this one, but it is plain to the eye that Cleveland dominated the Yanks. Sabathia did not have his best stuff (6 BBs), but neither did Wang. That Indians offense was on. Lofton, the crafty old vet, had a four-RBI day, while Garko and Martinez had three-hit days. The Indians offense smashed four home runs off of the Yankees pitching staff. The real story of this game is the Indians' bullpen. After Sabathia left before the sixth inning, three Indians relievers combined for four innings of one hit relief.

The Yankees, well, weren't the Yankees in this one. The offense only managed five hits all game and was shut down by the Indians bullpen. Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Matsui, and Cabrera all went hitless for the Indians offense. Foreshadowing? Wang just was horrible. Eight runs in four and two-thirds innings, just not much that can be said about that. The Yankees were outplayed.

Game 2
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
Friday, October 5, 2007, 5:00 PM ET
Jacobs Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Andy Pettite (0-0) vs. Fausto Carmona (0-0)

Cleveland Indians-New York Yankees ALDS Preview

For the American League Division Series, I will be covering the matchup of the Cleveland Indians versus the New York Yankees. This Cleveland's first playoff appearance since 2001. This is New York's first playoff appearance since last year. Let's take a look at this past season for both teams...

Cleveland Indians: Team Profile
Record: 96-66 (1st in AL Central)
Manager: Eric Wedge (415-395, career)
Team Average Age: 28.0
Runs Scored: 811
Runs Allowed: 704
Team Batting (Rank in AL in Parentheses)
Batting Average: .268 (7)
Home Runs: 178 (5)
On-Base Percentage: .343 (5)
Slugging: .428 (5)
Bases on Balls: 590 (4)
Strikeouts: 1202 (3)
Individual Batting Leaders (min 99 games)
Average: Victor Martinez (.301)
On-Base Percentage: Grady Sizemore (.390)
Slugging %: Victor Martinez (.505)
Runs: Grady Sizemore (118)
Hits: Grady Sizemore (174)
Doubles: Victor Martinez (40)
Triples: Grady Sizemore (5)
Home Runs: Victor Martinez (25)
RBIs: Victor Martinez (114)
Bases on Balls: Travis Hafner (102)
Strikeouts: Grady Sizemore (155)
Stolen Bases: Grady Sizemore (33)
Team Pitching (Rank in AL in Parentheses)
ERA: 4.05 (3)
Complete Games: 9 (2)
Shutouts: 9 (3)
Home Runs: 146 (2)
Walks: 410 (1)
Strikeouts: 1047 (1)
Individual Pitching Leaders
Wins: C.C. Sabathia/Fausto Carmona (19)
Losses: Jake Westbrook (9)
ERA (Min 100 innings): Fausto Carmona (3.06)
Complete Games: C.C. Sabathia (4)
Shutouts: Paul Byrd (2)
Innings Pitched: C.C. Sabathia (241.0)
Strikeouts: C.C. Sabathia (209)
Walks: Fausto Carmona (61)
Saves: Joe Borowski (45)
Key Player: Victor Martinez obviously seems to be the offensive juggarnaut of this team and Travis Hafner looms large in the middle of the order, but the catalyst of the Indians offense that is key to stopping them is Grady Sizemore. Sizemore, for the season, has walked 101 times out of the lead off spot and boosted his OBP to .390. His OBP is just out of the top ten while his walks are fifth in the American League, behind the likes of Ortiz, Cust, Pena, and Hafner. If Sizemore can be neutralized through the strikeout (second in the AL with 155), the Cleveland offense will have to depend on Martinez and Hafner even more. Hafner had an off-year with only 24 home runs in 152 games after hitting 42 in just 129 games last year. He will need to step it up in the playoffs for the Indians' offense to be successful.
Key Pitcher: Fausto Carmona. Some would say the back end of the Indians rotation would be more of a concern, but I think more of the pressure sets itself on Fausto. Carmona is only 23 years old and has had an outstanding season (19-8, 3.06) after a disastrous rookie season (1-10, 5.42). But will he be able to last into the postseason? He threw 215.0 innings this year, the most in a year for him at any level. Will he be able to respond to the pressures of October?

New York Yankees: Team Profile
Record: 94-68 (2nd in AL East)
Manager: Joe Torre (1173-767, career with Yankees)
Team Average Age: 30.6
Runs Scored: 968
Runs Allowed: 777
Team Batting (Rank in AL in Parentheses)
Batting Average: .290 (1)
Home Runs: 201 (1)
On-Base Percentage: .366 (1)
Slugging: .463 (1)
Bases on Balls: 637 (3)
Strikeouts: 991 (10)
Individual Batting Leaders (min 99 games)
Average: Jorge Posada (.338)
On-Base Percentage: Jorge Posada (.426)
Slugging %: Alex Rodriguez (.645)
Runs: Alex Rodriguez (143)
Hits: Derek Jeter (206)
Doubles: Jorge Posada (42)
Triples: Melky Cabrera (8)
Home Runs: Alex Rodriguez (54)
RBIs: Alex Rodriguez (156)
Bases on Balls: Alex Rodriguez (95)
Strikeouts: Alex Rodrigues (120)
Stolen Bases: Johnny Damon (27)
Team Pitching (Rank in AL in Parentheses)
ERA: 4.50 (7)
Complete Games: 1 (12)
Shutouts: 5 (13)
Home Runs: 150 (4)
Walks: 578 (12)
Strikeouts: 1009 (12)
Individual Pitching Leaders
Wins: Chien-Ming Wang (19)
Losses: Mike Mussina (10)
ERA (Min 100 innings): Chien-Ming Wang (3.70)
Complete Games: Chien-Ming Wang (1)
Shutouts: --
Innings Pitched: Andy Pettite (215.3)
Strikeouts: Andy Pettite (141)
Walks: Andy Pettite (69)
Saves: Mariano Rivera (30)
Key Player: Alex Rodriguez, hands down. A-Rod's postseason struggles have been well documented. Last year in the ALDS against the Detroit Tigers, he batted .071 and the year before that in the ALDS against the Angels, he batted .133. In his last two posteseason series, A-Rod has only three hits and nine strikeouts. If the Yankees want to have a chance, they need Rodriguez to bring his MVP game into the postseason.
Key Pitcher: Roger Clemens. At 44, he is no longer what he once was, but he can still produce a bit. I think. In the regular season, Clemens went 6-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 17 starts. He gave up 99 hits in 99.0 innings. The Yankees know they will get quality starts out of Pettite and Wang, but after them, with Clemens, Mussina, and Hughes, the picture gets quite fuzzy.

Cleveland Indians-New York Yankees: Head-to-Head
2003: Yankees won season series, 5-2
2004: Yankees won season series, 4-2
2005: Yankees won season series, 4-3
2006: Yankees won season series, 4-3
2007: Yankees won season series, 6-0
Since 2003, the Yankees lead season series 23-10.

Cleveland Indians-New York Yankees, 2007 Matchups at a Glance
April 17, 2007: New York 10, Cleveland 3 (WP: C. Wright, LP: J. Westbrook)
April 18, 2007: New York 9, Cleveland 2 (WP: K. Igawa, LP: J. Sowers)
April 19, 2007: New York 8, Cleveland 6 (WP: S. Henn, LP: J. Borowski)
August 10, 2007: New York 6, Cleveland 1 (WP: P. Hughes, LP: F. Carmona)
August 11, 2007: New York 11, Cleveland 2 (WP: M. Mussina, LP: P. Byrd)
August 12, 2007: New York 5, Cleveland 3 (WP: A. Pettite, LP: J. Westbrook)
Significance: New York outscored Cleveland 49-17 in 2007. The Yankees have outscored the Indians 190-154 since 2003, but the Tribe has 22-0 and 19-1 wins to its credit, which slightly skews the porportionality of runs scored and wins in the series, in my opinion.

The Series
Game 1: Thursday, October 4, 2007, 6:30 PM ET
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
Jacobs Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Chien-Ming Wang vs. C.C. Sabathia
Game 2: Friday, October 5, 2007, 5:00 PM ET
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
Jacobs Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Andy Pettite vs. Fausto Carmona
Game 3: Sunday, October 7, 2007, 6:30 PM ET
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
Jake Westbrook vs. Roger Clemens
Game 4*: Monday, October 8, 2007, 6:00 PM ET
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
Starters TBD
Game 5*: Wednesday, October 10, 2007, 5:00 PM ET
New York Yankees @ Cleveland Indians
Jacobs Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Starters TBD
* - if necessary

Probable Lineups (AVG, HR, RBI)
New York Yankees
Jorge Posada (S), C: .338, 20, 90
Doug Mientkiewicz (L), 1B: .277, 5, 24
Robinson Cano (L), 2B: .306, 19, 97
Alex Rodriguez (R), 3B: .314, 54, 156
Derek Jeter (R), SS: .322, 12, 73
Hideki Matsui (L), LF: .285, 25, 103
Melky Cabrera (S), CF: .273, 8, 73
Bobby Abreu (L), RF: .283, 16, 101
Jason Giambi (L), DH: .236, 14, 49
Cleveland Indians
Victor Martinez (S), C: .301, 25, 114
Ryan Garko (R), 1B: .289, 21, 61
Josh Barfield (R), 2B: .243, 3, 50
Casey Blake (R), 3B: .270, 18, 78
Jhonny Peralta (R), SS: .270, 21, 72
Jason Michaels (R), LF: .270, 7, 39
Grady Sizemore (L), CF: .277, 24, 78
Trot Nixon (L), RF: .251, 3, 31
Travis Hafner (L), DH: .266, 24, 100

Probable Pitching Staffs
New York Yankees
Starters
Chien-Ming Wang (R): 19-7, 3.70
Andy Pettite (L):
Roger Clemens (R):
Mike Mussina (R):
Phillip Hughes (R):
Relievers
Mariano Rivera (R): 3-4, 3.15, 30 saves
Joba Chamberlain (R): 2-0, 0.38, 1 save

Cleveland Indians
Starters
C.C. Sabathia (L): 19-7, 3.21
Fausto Carmona (R): 19-8, 3.06
Paul Byrd (R): 15-8, 4.59
Jake Westbrook (R): 6-9, 4.32
Aaron Laffey (L): 4-2, 4.56
Relievers
Joe Borowski (R): 4-5, 5.07, 45 saves
Rafael Betancourt (R): 5-1, 1.47, 3 saves

Analysis: This is what you have read all the above stuff to get to or what you just skipped to. The Indians surprised a lot of people and finished tied with the Boston Red Sox for the best record in Major League Baseball (96-66). The Yankees hung in the race even when they were down and out and hung on to nab the Wild-Card, six games in front of Detroit and Seattle. The Yankees overcame the seemingly insurmountable Boston Red Sox lead to finish two games out of first place. This matchup features the two hottest teams in the American League. Both are 21-9 over their last thirty games, 14-6 over their last twenty, and 6-4 over their last ten. Cleveland comes in boasting one of the best one-two pitching punches in C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, while the Yankees come in with Alex Rodriguez, who just completed one of the best seasons in recent memory. The Indians need their hitters to come through and the Yankees need their pitching to come through.

My Take: I jumped on ESPN.com, and seven of their ten so-called "experts" have picked the Indians in this series. I beg to differ. I take the Yankees in four. The one game I see the Indians winning is either of the matchups that Sabathia or Carmona pitch in. However, if both of them lose their matchups, I don't see Jake Westbrook saving the Tribe in Game 3. The Indians pitching is considered great, but once you get bast the top two, it is terribly mediocre. Not to mention the the Yankees averaged 8.2 runs per game in their season series against the Indians. It's great to see the Indians back in the playoffs, due to the fact that some of my earliest postseason memories involve them, but they will not stay this year. Yanks in four.

The End of the Road For Our Neighbors to the North

On September 3, 2007, the Ottawa Lynx played the final Triple-A baseball game in Canada. Following in the footsteps of Triple-A teams from Calgary, Vancouver, Winnipeg, and Edmonton, the Philadelphia Phillies' Triple-A affiliate will head for greener pastures next year. The lone teams that remain in Canada are the Vancouver Canadians, a Single-A affiliate of the Oakland Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays.

So what does this mean for baseball?

I think baseball is basically ignoring the United States' neighbor to the north and concentrating on globalizing baseball elsewhere, in places such as Asia and Europe. But why ignore Canada? It's not like the players coming out of there are horrible. Erik Bedard, Ryan Braun, Ryan Dempster, Eric Gagne, Rich Harden, Ferguson Jenkins, Adam Loewen, Russell Martin, and Larry Walker are some of the notable players to come out of Canada. Braun, Loewen, and Martin are all regarded as young stars of the game.

Yes, Canada is a hockey-first country, but is it really necessary to pull ALL teams out of Canada? Canadians are allowed to like baseball too. But this is the end of the road for Major League Baseball affiliated teams. When the only two teams in your country are a Single-A team which could be moved at any time and an underachieving MLB team, that's not good. The Blue Jays are only 14 years removed from a World Series title, but if they falter in the next 10-15 years, I can see them being moved.

When it all comes down to it in, 5-10 years, the Blue Jays will be the only team left and Major League Baseball will be wondering what happened to baseball in Canada. Unfortunately, they won't realize they brought this upon themselves.

Can MLB Get Any Better Then This?

As I combed the house for food this morning, I stumbled across ESPN while going through the channels, they did a special on the very important baseball series' that were going on this week:
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Those are the four that they touched on, but after doing some research, I found some more:
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
This is going to be a good week of baseball. Some of the division races will be decided. Here is a preview of each series:

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
Three games series, August 28-30, 2007
Boston: 80-51, 0 games back
New York: 72-58, 7.5 games back
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Matsuzaka (13-10, 3.76) vs. Pettite (11-7, 3.69)
Game 2: Beckett (16-5, 3.21) vs. Clemens (5-5, 4.34)
Game 3: Schilling (8-5, 4.11) vs. Wang (15-6, 3.95)
My Take: The Red Sox venture into New York with a 7.5 game lead that could easily vanish. The Red Sox may very well only have a 3.5 game lead on the Yankees (if New York beats Detroit tonight and sweeps the Sox). The Yankees have struggled in their last ten, going 5-5 while the Red Sox have expanded their lead by going 7-3 in their last ten. The schedule works out perfectly for each team, as they have their top three starters starting in this series. The 7.5 game margin in the standings makes this series seem like it is only important because it's Red Sox-Yankees, but this can very well be a factor come October.
Future Matchups
September 14-16, 2007 in Boston

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim @ Seattle Mariners
Three game series, August 27-29, 2007
Los Angeles: 76-54, 0 games back
Seattle: 73-55, 2.0 games back
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Lackey (15-8, 3.34) vs. Batista (13-9, 4.57)
Game 2: Santana (5-12, 6.03) vs. Weaver (6-10, 5.51)
Game 3: Weaver (9-6, 3.96) vs. Hernandez (10-6, 3.90)
My Take: Seattle could very well come out of this with a sweep or at least two games. Jeff Weaver (SEA) has been pitching well lately, as he usually does in the second half, while Santana has been off and on all season. The climax of this series is the third game where two of the premier young pitchers in the AL show off in a matchup between Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez. Seattle can gain on the division and extend their wild-card league with a strong showing in this matchup.
Future Matchups
September 20-23, 2007, in Anaheim

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Three game series, August 28-30, 2007
Milwaukee: 65-65, 1.5 games back
Chicago: 66-63, 0 games back
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Suppan (8-11, 4.85) vs. Hill (7-7, 3.67)
Game 2: TBA vs. Zambrano (14-10, 3.95)
Game 3: TBA vs. Lily (13-7, 3.85)
My Take: Milwaukee picked a very bad time to be going against two of Chicago's top starters. Coming in on a four game losing streak, including a sweep at the hands of the lowly San Francisco Giants, the Brewers are no longer the team they were in April and May. However, these two teams need to be more worried about St. Louis than each other. In their last 30, the Cubs are 13-17 while the Brewers are 9-21 (that's not good). During this span, the Cardinals were 18-12 and have pulled within a half game of the Brewers and two games of the Cubs. All three of these teams are limping towards the finish line with their eyes in the rearview mirrors, as the division seems to be the only way any three of these teams will make it into the playoffs. With no more games played against each other, this is it.
Future Matchups
None

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Four games series, August 27-30, 2007
Arizona: 74-54, 0 games back
San Diego: 70-59, 3.0 games back
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Hernandez (9-8, 4.96) vs. Peavy (14-5, 2.21)
Game 2: Webb (14-8, 2.63) vs. Germano (6-7, 4.24)
Game 3: Owings (6-7, 4.69) vs. Maddux (10-9, 3.90)
Game 4: Davis (11-11, 4.09) vs. TBA
My Take: Arizona has been tearing it up in their last 30, going 21-9, while San Diego has put up a mark of 16-14 in the same span. Arizona has become the new favorite to win the West behind their young talent, but San Diego could very well steal the division by sweeping this series, a la New York sweeping Boston in five games last year, or taking three of the four games. San Diego still remains a favorite for the World Series for some people, but for them to really have a chance, they need their offense to step it up. They are facing three pitchers with ERAs over four, so this could be the series where the offense wakes up.
Future Matchups
September 3-5, 2007, in Arizona

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Four game series, August 27-30, 2007
New York: 73-56, 0 games back
Philadelphia: 67-62, 6.0 games back
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Lawrence (1-1, 5.57) vs. Durbin (5-3, 5.44)
Game 2: Glavine (11-6, 4.32) vs. Eaton (9-8, 6.36)
Game 3: Perez (12-8, 3.34) vs. Moyer (11-10, 5.16)
Game 4: Hernandez (9-4, 3.07) vs. Lohse (7-12, 4.47)
My Take: Even the most ardent of Phillies' fans will acknowledge that the division race is over if the Mets take three of four or sweep. However, the Phillies can swing the momentum and get back in the wild-card (3.0 games behind SD) with a few victories. When you look at the pitching they are throwing out there, this does not seem likely. How does Adam Eaton have a record over .500 (albeit one game)? The Phillies should be able to hang tough and hope to win with an offense that just exploded for 14 runs against a good pitching team in San Diego. Basically, this series decides the Phillies' season.
Future Matchups
September 14-16, 2007, in New York

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
Three game series, August 27-29, 2007
Minnesota: 67-63, 5.5 games behind
Cleveland: 72-57, 0 games behind
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Silva (10-12, 4.10) vs. Byrd (12-5, 4.61)
Game 2: Bonser (6-10, 4.76) vs. Westbrook (4-7, 4.40)
Game 3: Santana (14-9, 2.97) vs. Sabathia (14-7, 3.38)
My Take: Minnesota has surged back into the division hunt on a five-game winning streak that includes a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles. Only 5.5 games back of Cleveland, Minnesota can see the prize, while Cleveland can see Detroit and Minnesota in their rear view mirror. The ultimate matchup, in my opinion, is the final game of this series: Johan Santana vs. C.C. Sabathia. Two of the best pitchers in the American League duking it out. Should be a fantastic game.
Future Matchups
September 3-5, 2007 in Minnesota

So there we have it. A preview of some fantastic baseball that is taking place this week.